Georgetown, Cedar Park and Austin Suburbs Lead March 2026 City-Level Housing Data

Georgetown, Cedar Park and Austin Suburbs Lead March 2026

City-Level Housing Data | Austin Market Update

Across Austin and its suburbs, the housing data tells a story of diverging fortunes in March 2026, and knowing which side of that divide your neighborhood sits on could be worth tens of thousands of dollars.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for March 19, 2026.

The austin real estate market is not one market. It is thirty markets, each with its own inventory pressures, price trends, and buyer-seller dynamics. On March 19, 2026, that reality is on full display. The metro-wide picture shows 14,287 active residential listings, up 7.1% from last year, with nearly half of all active homes having already taken at least one price cut. But inside those headline numbers, individual cities and suburbs are telling very different stories. Some communities are seeing tight supply and rising demand. Others are watching inventory pile up and prices slide. Understanding where your target neighborhood falls on that spectrum is the most important piece of the austin housing forecast puzzle right now.

Starting with supply, the market-wide Months of Inventory reading of 5.06 places Austin in what analysts classify as Buyer Advantage territory, meaning buyers have real negotiating leverage in most situations. That figure is up 8.1% from March 2025, when Months of Inventory stood at 4.68. The long-view perspective is even more striking. Compared to March 2024, inventory is up 40.2% across the Austin area. That is not a subtle shift. That is a market that has fundamentally repositioned itself away from the frenzied seller conditions of the recent past.

Not every suburb is equally exposed to that inventory build-up, however. Cedar Park stands out as one of the tightest markets in the region, with just 2.90 months of inventory, which sits firmly in the Seller Edge category. Round Rock and Pflugerville are also holding relatively tight supply at 3.99 and 3.86 months respectively. By contrast, communities like Jarrell (10.82 months), Lago Vista (11.23 months), and Bastrop (12.35 months) are deep in Buyer Control territory, where excess supply is pulling prices lower and giving buyers significant room to negotiate. Dale, at 35.25 months of inventory, is an extreme outlier on the supply side and should be interpreted with caution given its small transaction volume.

The Activity Index, which measures what percentage of active listings are going under contract in a given period, reinforces this suburban divide. Market-wide, the resale Activity Index stands at 21.25%, placing the broader market in the Softening phase. New construction is performing considerably better at 32.51%, landing in the Expansion phase where demand is stronger and absorption is faster. Among individual cities, Buda leads resale at 32.06%, followed by Round Rock at 31.42% and Cedar Park at 29.83%. These are pockets of genuine strength. On the other end, markets like Marble Falls (6.00%), Smithville (10.13%), and Burnet (11.27%) are showing very low activity rates, signaling that homes in these areas are sitting longer and facing greater pricing pressure.

The city-level appreciation data adds another dimension to the austin real estate forecast for 2026. Of the 30 cities tracked in this briefing, 8 are showing year-over-year gains in median sold price and 22 are showing declines. Wimberley leads all cities with an 18.0% year-over-year increase in median price, with a current median of $579,500. Burnet is up 15.1%, and Lago Vista is up 5.3%. Among the cities showing price weakness, Lockhart has declined 16.7% year over year to a median of $243,990, while Driftwood is down 20.1% to $874,000, though that market trades at a very high price point with thin volume. Taylor is off 11.3% and Spicewood is down 10.5%.

Looking at Georgetown specifically, a city that has attracted significant buyer interest in recent years due to its relative affordability and access to Austin, the data shows a median sold price of $420,000, down 6.7% year over year. Georgetown carries 5.23 months of inventory, and its Activity Index sits at 22.53%, placing it in the Softening phase. The Home Value Index classifies Georgetown as overvalued relative to its inflation-adjusted baseline, with current prices running roughly 13.8% above where inflation alone would justify. For buyers considering Georgetown, that context matters. The market is correcting, and while Georgetown still represents a compelling long-term story, near-term price pressure is real.

Price reduction activity at the suburb level is equally telling. Liberty Hill leads all cities with 61.3% of its active listings having received at least one price drop. Hutto is at 58.0%, Georgetown at 53.9%, and Lockhart at 58.8%. By contrast, Cedar Park (37.9%), Austin proper (41.5%), and Leander (41.6%) are showing lower price reduction rates, suggesting sellers in those markets are holding closer to their asking prices. The market-wide figure of 46.9% for price reductions remains elevated, and for buyers, that number represents negotiating opportunity.

On the demand side, the austin market update contains a genuinely positive signal worth paying attention to. Pending listings are up 8.0% year over year, sitting at 4,656 compared to 4,313 in March 2025. That improvement in pending sales is a forward-looking indicator of where closed sales are headed over the next 30 to 60 days. March closed sales came in at 2,626, which is 11.9% above the historical average for this time of year. The year-to-date Absorption Rate stands at 17.52%, which is well below the historical average of 31.49%, but the direction of pending listings suggests demand is gradually finding its footing.

Pricing from the peak continues to weigh on the overall narrative. The median sold price of $445,000 represents a 19.09% drop from the May 2022 peak of $550,000, a decline of roughly $105,000. Projections based on the Austin market's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.74% suggest it would take approximately 57 months from today, meaning around November 2030, for the median price to fully recover to its prior peak level. That timeline is meaningful context for sellers who may be hoping for a quick rebound, and for investors weighing the long-term case for austin real estate.

The Market Flow Score of 4.14 against a historical median of 6.57 confirms what the individual metrics are all pointing to: this is a market where supply still outpaces demand in most zip codes, where patience benefits buyers, and where sellers who price aggressively upfront are consistently outperforming those who chase the market down. For real estate agents working across these suburbs, the data argues for hyper-local conversations with clients rather than metro-wide generalizations.

Visit Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

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FAQ SECTION

Is now a good time to buy a home in Austin?

Based on the data from March 19, 2026, there is a strong case to be made that conditions are quite favorable for buyers in much of the Austin area. Active listings have climbed to 14,287, up 7.1% from this time last year, and nearly 47% of those homes have already had at least one price reduction, giving buyers meaningful leverage at the negotiating table. The median sold price of $445,000 represents a drop of roughly $105,000 from the May 2022 peak, which means buyers today are entering the market at substantially lower price points than those who purchased during the frenzy. That said, the right answer depends heavily on which suburb or neighborhood you are targeting, because tight-inventory markets like Cedar Park (2.90 months of inventory) and Round Rock (3.99 months) still lean toward sellers, while areas like Jarrell and Lago Vista offer much more buyer-friendly conditions. If you are financially prepared and targeting the right area, the current austin housing environment offers more opportunity for buyers than it has in several years.

Are home prices dropping in Austin Texas?

Yes, home prices across the Austin area are broadly lower than they were at the 2022 peak, and the data as of March 19, 2026 confirms that prices continue to face downward pressure in most communities. The market-wide median sold price is $445,000, down 19.09% from the May 2022 high of $550,000, a reduction of approximately $105,000. At the city level, 22 of the 30 tracked communities are showing year-over-year price declines, with cities like Lockhart (down 16.7%), Taylor (down 11.3%), and Spicewood (down 10.5%) among the harder-hit markets. The bottom 25th percentile of homes, meaning entry-level and affordable properties, saw prices decline 1.54% year over year with cost-per-square-foot dropping 6.66%, indicating that even the lower end of the market is not immune. However, a small group of cities including Wimberley (up 18.0%), Burnet (up 15.1%), and Lago Vista (up 5.3%) are bucking the trend, reminding us that austin real estate outcomes vary significantly by location.

What is the Austin housing market forecast for 2026?

The austin housing forecast for 2026 points to a market that is stabilizing but has not yet reached a clear turning point. The resale Activity Index of 21.25% places the broader market in the Softening phase, which historically corresponds to slower sales, rising inventory, and modest price declines. Months of Inventory at 5.06 is elevated compared to last year (4.68) and reflects ongoing supply-demand imbalance. The more encouraging data point is the 8.0% year-over-year increase in pending listings, which suggests that buyer demand is gradually improving as affordability has been restored through the price correction of the past three years. If that demand trend holds through the spring buying season and inventory growth slows, the second half of 2026 could bring more stability to the austin real estate forecast. Using the market's 25-year appreciation rate of 4.74%, a return to the prior peak median price would not be expected until approximately November 2030, suggesting that meaningful price recovery is a multi-year story rather than a near-term event.

How does Austin inventory compare to historical levels?

Austin's current inventory of 14,287 active listings is elevated by historical standards, though it has pulled back significantly from its recent peak of 18,146 reached on June 30, 2025. The year-to-date New Listing to Pending Ratio of 0.73 sits below the 25-year average of 0.82, meaning new listings are arriving at a slower pace relative to pending sales than the long-run norm, which is a mild positive signal for supply absorption. That said, the 5.06 Months of Inventory and an Absorption Rate of just 17.52% compared to the historical average of 31.49% confirm that current inventory levels still heavily favor buyers in most scenarios. The two-year inventory comparison tells the full story clearly: Austin is carrying 40.2% more inventory today than it did in March 2024, and while supply peaked last summer, the market has not yet absorbed that excess down to neutral levels. For buyers, this means more choices and more negotiating room; for sellers, it means pricing strategy is more critical than ever.

Which Austin cities have the most price drops right now?

Among the cities tracked in this austin market update, Liberty Hill leads all communities with 61.3% of its active listings having received at least one price reduction. Lockhart is close behind at 58.8%, followed by Hutto at 58.0% and Georgetown at 53.9%. Kyle, Elgin, and San Marcos all show price reduction rates above 55%, indicating that sellers in those communities are routinely having to lower their asking prices to attract buyers. At the metro level, the figure sits at 46.9%, which means nearly half of all active homes have been discounted at least once. These high price-drop rates are most concentrated in suburbs where inventory has built up significantly over the past two years and where the Activity Index has fallen into the Softening or lower phases. For buyers specifically targeting value, these high-reduction cities represent some of the best opportunities in the current market, particularly when combined with communities showing elevated Months of Inventory like Jarrell, Lago Vista, and Bastrop.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.