Austin Housing Market Week in Review: Where Are Prices Headed in March 2026?

Austin Housing Market Week in Review:

Where Are Prices Headed in March 2026?

The Austin housing market closed this week with more inventory, more price cuts, and more buyer activity than a year ago, and understanding all three trends together is the key to making a smart move right now.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for March 20, 2026.

This week's austin market update delivers a clear and consistent message: supply is elevated, sellers are adjusting their expectations, and buyers are beginning to respond. The data from March 20, 2026 paints a picture of a market that is still correcting from the historic highs of 2022, but one that is showing genuine signs of stabilization in ways that matter most to people making real decisions about buying or selling a home.

Active residential listings across the Austin area stand at 14,443 as of today. That number is 6.6% higher than it was at this same point in 2025, and it represents a market where buyers have options. To put that in perspective, inventory peaked at 18,146 on June 30, 2025, so while supply remains elevated by historical standards, the market has pulled back meaningfully from that extreme. New construction accounts for 3,766 of those active listings, while resale homes make up the remaining 10,677. Buyers today can choose between brand-new homes with builder incentives and resale properties where sellers have shown a clear willingness to negotiate.

That willingness to negotiate shows up plainly in the price reduction data. A full 46.7% of all active listings across the Austin metro have had at least one price drop. In some cities, that number is even higher. Liberty Hill sits at 60.6%, Hutto at 57.1%, and Georgetown at 53.8%. For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines wondering whether sellers would come down, the answer across most of the region is yes, they already have. This is one of the defining characteristics of today's austin real estate landscape, and it represents a meaningful shift from the seller-dominated environment that existed just a few years ago.

The resale Activity Index, which measures what percentage of active listings are going under contract in a given period, is currently at 20.93%. This places the resale market in the Softening phase, which covers the range between 20% and 25%. Historically, the market spends a significant amount of time in this zone during transition periods, and it signals slower sales, some rising inventory, and pricing that favors the patient buyer. New construction is performing considerably better, with an Activity Index of 32.74%, which falls in the Expansion phase. Builders are closing deals at a noticeably faster rate than the resale market, partly because they can offer rate buydowns and other incentives that individual sellers simply cannot match.

Months of Inventory, another way of measuring how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current pace of sales, stands at 5.11 months. That is 7.3% higher than the 4.77 months recorded in March 2025. A balanced market typically sits in the range of five to six months, so Austin is not dramatically oversupplied, but the direction of travel over the past two years is unmistakable. Looking back to March 2024, inventory has grown by 41.4% in just two years, which is the kind of shift that gives buyers real negotiating leverage that did not exist during the 2021 and 2022 peak years. At the city level, Cedar Park and Pflugerville remain among the tightest markets, while Dale, Spicewood, and Smithville show the highest inventory readings.

Despite the elevated supply picture, one of the most important data points in today's austin housing forecast is the pending listings count. There are currently 4,660 homes under contract across the region, which is 8.1% more than the 4,312 pending at this time last year. This matters because pending sales are a forward-looking demand signal. Buyers are not sitting still. They are identifying value in this market and moving forward. The year-to-date New Listing to Pending Ratio stands at 0.72, which means that for every 100 new listings that come to market, 72 are going under contract. The 25-year average for this ratio is 0.82, so demand is still running below its long-term norm, but the gap is narrowing.

On the price side, the median sold price in March 2026 is $445,250. That is 19.05%, or roughly $105,000, below the all-time peak of $550,000 reached in May 2022. For buyers, this is a significant opportunity. Based on the Austin market's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.742%, projections suggest it could take until approximately November 2030 to return to that peak value. That timeline means buyers who purchase today may be acquiring real estate well below where prices are likely to be in the medium-term future. The average sold price for March came in at $591,306, which is 13.29% below its own peak of $681,939 from May 2022. Both figures reflect a market that has corrected substantially without collapsing.

The Absorption Rate, which measures the percentage of active listings that actually sell in a given month, is at 17.52%. The historical average is 31.49%, which tells you that this market is moving at roughly half the pace it has averaged over the long term. The Market Flow Score, a composite index that rolls multiple efficiency metrics into a single 0-to-10 number, sits at 4.16 today. The historical average is 6.57. Both of these readings confirm what the other data points are already suggesting: this is a supply-heavy market where homes take longer to sell and where pricing strategy matters enormously for sellers.

For real estate agents, this week's data reinforces the importance of pricing conversations with seller clients. Homes that are priced correctly from the start are closing at 97.48% of list price, which is actually a solid ratio in the current environment. Homes that require multiple price reductions, which now represent nearly half the active inventory, are spending more time on the market and attracting lower offers. The agents who are winning in this market are the ones helping sellers understand the difference between where they want to price and where the market will actually respond.

For buyers, the austin real estate forecast heading into spring is one of continued opportunity. Inventory is available, sellers are motivated, and the median price remains well below its peak. The activity data tells us other buyers are already in the market, which is a sign that the window of maximum buyer leverage may not stay open indefinitely as the spring buying season gets underway.

Visit Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

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FAQ SECTION

How long does it take to sell a home in Austin right now?

The time it takes to sell a home in Austin right now depends heavily on price, condition, and location, but the overall data points to a slower market than what sellers experienced during the 2021 and 2022 peak years. The Months of Inventory figure for March 2026 is 5.11, up 7.3% from 4.77 months in March 2025, which means there is more competition among sellers for the same pool of buyers. The Absorption Rate, which measures how many active listings actually sell in a given month, sits at just 17.52% compared to a historical average of 31.49%, confirming that homes are moving at roughly half the typical pace. Sellers who price correctly from the start are closing at 97.48% of list price, while those who require price reductions, currently about 46.7% of all active listings, are likely spending significantly more time on the market before finding a buyer.

What is the median home price in Austin in 2026?

The median sold price in the Austin area as of March 2026 is $445,250, which represents a meaningful improvement from the January 2026 low of $403,750 and reflects continued month-over-month recovery. That said, the current median is still 19.05% below the all-time peak of $550,000 recorded in May 2022, which translates to roughly $105,000 in price correction from the top of the market. For buyers, this means they are entering the market at prices that are substantially lower than what buyers paid at the peak, and the long-term appreciation rate of 4.742% per year suggests real upside potential over a typical homeownership horizon. The average sold price for March 2026 is $591,306, which is higher than the median because a smaller number of high-end transactions pull the average upward, making the median the more reliable benchmark for most buyers and sellers in today's austin housing market.

Is Austin real estate overvalued or undervalued?

According to the Home Value Index, which compares current median sold prices against both inflation-adjusted fair value and long-term trend values, 56.7% of tracked cities in the Austin area are currently overvalued, 43.3% are fairly valued, and just one city is undervalued. Cities like Lago Vista, Liberty Hill, Wimberley, and Smithville show the largest gaps between current prices and their inflation-adjusted benchmarks, while cities like Austin proper, Cedar Park, and Pflugerville are holding closer to fair value. The overall market median sold price of $405,000 across the 90-day trailing window is just 1.3% above its inflation-adjusted fair value of $399,688, suggesting the broad market is approaching a more balanced pricing zone after years of significant overvaluation. For buyers evaluating specific neighborhoods or cities in today's austin real estate environment, the Home Value Index is a useful tool for determining whether current prices reflect good long-term value or whether further normalization may still be ahead.

How much have Austin home prices dropped from their peak?

Austin home prices have fallen substantially from their 2022 highs, with the median sold price dropping 19.05%, or approximately $105,000, from the peak of $550,000 in May 2022 to the current level of $445,250 as of March 2026. The average sold price has declined by 13.29%, or about $91,000, from its peak of $681,939 in May 2022 to today's reading of $591,306. When looking at individual price segments, the bottom 25th percentile of homes has seen prices fall 1.09% year over year with price-per-square-foot dropping 6.99%, while the top 25th percentile shows prices down 1.60% with price-per-square-foot falling 3.81%. Based on the market's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.742%, projections from today's median price of $445,250 suggest it would take approximately 57 months, reaching around November 2030, to return to an adjusted peak value, which is a key part of the current austin housing forecast for buyers and investors weighing their timing.

What does the Activity Index tell us about the Austin market?

The Activity Index measures the percentage of active listings that go under contract during a given period, and it is one of the clearest real-time signals of market momentum in the Austin real estate report. Today's overall Activity Index sits at 24.4% for 2026 compared to 24.1% at this same point in 2025, a modest 1.1% improvement that suggests demand is holding steady on a year-over-year basis. The resale segment sits at 20.93%, which places it in the Softening phase, defined as the range between 20% and 25% and associated with slower sales, rising inventory, and pricing pressure that favors buyers. New construction is performing considerably better at 32.74%, firmly in the Expansion phase, where strong demand and relatively faster sales create a different competitive environment for buyers choosing between resale and builder inventory. Understanding where a specific city or zip code falls on the Activity Index spectrum is one of the most practical tools for both buyers and agents calibrating their strategy in today's austin market update, since the range across local markets currently spans from below 12% in some areas to above 50% in the strongest zip codes.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.